Investors spend so much time thinking about the probable that they rarely contemplate the outsized impact of the unlikely. We pore over financial statements, dive deep into economic indicators, and try to assess the result of acquisitions, trade agreements, management changes, and political shifts, but the black swan can fly right past our faces and tear all this careful analysis to shreds. Because it's nearly impossible to predict, the emergence of a black swan -- that rare and unlikely event that changes so much of our world that it can often only be understood in hindsight -- is typically ignored despite the simple fact that such events can do more to our investments than years of steady progress.
As we approach the new year, we confront a world whose future is as unknowable as ever. We may never know whether catastrophe is just around the corner, but what we can do is try to understand the shapes it might take so that we can better prepare ourselves for the impact. And let's not forget that a black swan can, from time to time, lay a golden egg.
Hot Chemical Companies To Watch For 2015: Goldcorp Incorporated(GG)
Goldcorp Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. It produces and sells gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Richard Stavros]
Whereas in the 1970s there were limited ways to hedge against inflation, now there is a cornucopia of currency and international commodities instruments that can not only hedge against inflation but other global shocks, such as market bubbles and even war.
And it is these very scenarios that investors have been worried about. Since the beginning of the year, stocks, bonds and just about any investment you can think of have gyrated wildly at various times amid concerns of war, inflation and the possibility that the U.S. equity market is overvalued and headed for a correction.
In response, some market analysts in Bloomberg news reports have offered any number of wildly unsubstantiated statements for why investors should ignore today’s perils. They dismiss the danger posed by Russia�� annexation of Ukraine�� Crimea region (��utin will stop short of other countries or war with the West��. They also argue that the Federal Reserve chairwoman misspoke (��anet Yellen really didn�� mean a rate hike is coming soon. Inflation is under control. It was a rookie mistake��.
For my money, here’s the most outrageous: The Shiller Cyclically adjusted P/E metric which has predicted the 1929, 2000 and 2007 downturns doesn�� apply (��uggests only a slightly expensive market with low to moderate returns going forward on average��.
With new records being set by the S&P 500 in the last few months, it stands to reason that some investors have not needed much convincing to stay all in and buying. This mindset has prevailed, even as the impact of a Russian war or conflict, runaway inflation or a market correction could be devastating to investor portfolios, taking years to recover.
If you��e never thought of certain investments as “insurance,” it�� time to start now. Protecting wealth is as important as building wealth. And as previously mentioned, we have found that the Inflation Survival Letter�� Thri - [By Dan Caplinger]
Lately, those sectors haven't done all that well. Terrible performance in the commodities markets have really hurt Canada's natural resources industry, with dozens of companies suffering from the decline in precious metals like gold and silver so far this year. Vancouver-based Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) and Toronto's Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX ) rank among the biggest gold producers in the world and have big advantages in cost and economies of scale over some of their smaller rivals. Yet the plunge in gold prices has hammered their share prices, casting a shadow over the overall Canadian market's performance.
- [By Doug Ehrman]
Gold reacts
Gold, as represented by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD ) , fell quickly on the remarks, but bounced back to unchanged in short order. The gold miners -- including Barrick (NYSE: ABX ) , Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) , and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM ) had similar reactions (see chart). Looking ahead, the Fed is expecting U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% to 2.6% in 2013, accelerating to 3% to 3.5% in 2014. This growth is expected to come against a backdrop of falling unemployment, and an inflation rate in line with the targeted 2% rate set by the Fed. - [By Ben Levisohn]
Gold miners, however, are not participating in the rally today. Newmont Mining (NEM) has dropped 1.8% to $32.62, Goldcorp (GG) has gained 0.1% to $31.30 and Barrick Gold (ABX) has fallen 1.6% to $19.50. The Market Vectors Goldminers ETF (GDX) has fallen 1.1% to $30.09.
Hot Gold Companies For 2014: NEW GOLD INC.(NGD)
New Gold Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. The company primarily explore for gold, silver, and copper deposits. Its operating properties include the Mesquite gold mine in the United States; the Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in Mexico; and the Peak gold-copper mine in Australia. The company also has development projects, including the New Afton gold, silver, and copper project in Canada; and a 30% interest in the El Morro copper-gold project in Chile. The company was formerly known as DRC Resources Corporation and changed its name to New Gold Inc. in June 2005. New Gold Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
January is nearing an end, and that means one thing: Gold miners will start announcing earnings. New Gold (NGD) will get things started on Feb 6, followed by Kinross Gold (KGC) on Feb. 12 and Goldcorp (GG) and Barrick Gold (ABX) on Feb. 13.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Hamed singles out Goldcorp (GG) and Yamana Gold (AUY) as two companies that have strong production growth, falling costs, declining capital obligations and less debt than competitors. New Gold (NGD), meanwhile, should have the lowest all-on costs in the group at $731 an ounce, but its capital spending is likely to notes, Hamed says. Hamed rates Goldcorp and Yamana Overweight, while New Gold is rated Equal Weight.
Hot Gold Companies For 2014: First Majestic Silver Corp.(AG)
First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver in Mexico. The company owns interests in La Encantada Silver Mine comprising 4,076 hectares of mining rights and 1,343 hectares of surface land located in Coahuila; La Parrilla Silver Mine consisting of mining concessions covering an area of 69,867 hectares; and San Martin Silver Mine comprising approximately 7,841 hectares of mineral rights and approximately 1,300 hectares of surface land rights located in Jalisco. It also holds interests in Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 393 contiguous hectares of mining claims and an additional 129 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; Real de Catorce Silver Project comprising 22 mining concessions covering 6,327 hectares located in San Luis Potosi state; and Jalisco Group of Properties consisting of mining claims totalling 5,240 hectares located in Jalisco. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Lisa Levin] Related AG Morning Market Losers First Majestic Silver (AG) in Focus: Stock Rises 5.9% - Tale of the Tape Related ARCI Top 4 Stocks In The Electronics Stores Industry With The Highest ROE Morning Market Movers
The Dow jumped 0.77% to 17,074.40, while the NASDAQ composite index rose 0.47% to 4,436.25. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 0.53% to 1,978.08.
- [By Doug Ehrman]
While many precious-metals companies have been in a slump of late, there is one that belongs perpetually in your portfolio: Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) . The company is not like other miners -- including Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS ) and First Majestic (NYSE: AG ) -- in that it has a unique business plan that insulates it against many of the vagaries of the mining business. Moreover, because silver will always have a significant industrial demand component, even with the heightened volatility you see in the silver market, maintaining exposure to silver is appropriate.
- [By Doug Ehrman]
It is no secret that precious metals companies have been taking a pounding for some time now. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD ) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV ) , the gold and silver ETFs, have been hard hit and operating companies like First Majestic (NYSE: AG ) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX ) have been hit even harder. Through all of these struggles, and in some cases because of them, one precious metals company continues to look attractive for the long term: Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) .
- [By Doug Ehrman]
Despite the weakness seen in precious metals a few weeks ago, silver has been relatively stable ever since mid-April, with the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV ) trading in a dollar-wide range ever since. With the presidents of the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks��releasing conflicting statements, turmoil may be just around the corner. Miners like Pan American (NASDAQ: PAAS ) and First Majestic (NYSE: AG ) are still facing operating challenges, while silver streaming darling Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) struggles as well.
Hot Gold Companies For 2014: Australian Dollar(AU)
AngloGold Ashanti Limited primarily engages in the exploration and production of gold. It also produces silver, uranium oxide, and sulfuric acid. The company conducts gold-mining operations in South Africa; continental Africa, including Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Namibia, and Tanzania; Australia; and the Americas, which include Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. It also has mining or exploration operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Colombia. As of December 31, 2010, the company had proved and probable gold reserves of 71.2 million ounces. The company has a strategic alliance with Thani Dubai Mining Limited to explore, develop, and operate mines across the Middle East and parts of North Africa. AngloGold Ashanti Limited, formerly known as Vaal Reefs Exploration and Mining Company Limited, was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Profit Confidential]
Graham Ehm, Executive Vice President of South African-based AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE: AU), one of the biggest gold producers in the global economy, stated the company is looking to save $500 million over the next 18 months, as capital expenditures will only be going towards their highest-quality assets. (Source: Mining Weekly, August 5, 2013.)
- [By Dan Caplinger]
We've seen the flip side of that trend play out in recent years, as rock-bottom interest rates in the U.S. have encouraged investment in higher-yielding income investments in places like Australia, Brazil, and South Africa. Interest from foreign investors got to be so extensive in Brazil that the federal government imposed a tax on foreign investors in bonds in order to curb demand and slow the pace of the Brazilian real's appreciation. Exchange-rate issues also likely played a role in the health of the commodities markets, as mining giants BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP ) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO ) in Australia benefited from increased demand largely for base metals. Similarly, South African gold miners AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU ) and Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI ) outperformed rivals from elsewhere in the world, benefiting from strength in the South African rand currency.
- [By Holly LaFon]
The second largest market cap company, at $11.22 billion, is Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU). Its afternoon stock price of $29.15 is within 5% of its three-year low, and has experienced a more significant drop than Newmont ��it is down 44.9% from its high price of $52.86 a share.
- [By Jim Powell]
In addition to holding Goldcorp and Barrick Gold, the fund tracks the performance of Newmont Mining (NEM), Newcrest Mining (NCMGY), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), and several other industry leaders.
Hot Gold Companies For 2014: Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBGL)
Sibanye Gold Limited (Sibanye Gold), formerly GFI Mining South Africa (Pty) Limited, incorporated on December 12, 2002, is a producer of gold in South Africa. Sibanye Gold is primarily engaged in underground and surface gold mining and related activities, including extraction, and processing. Sibanye Gold�� operations are located in South Africa. Its principal mining operations include Kloof-Driefontein Complex (KDC) and Beatrix. Exploration activities are focused on the extension of existing ore bodies and identification of new ore bodies at existing sites. As of January 10, 2013, Sibanye Gold mined only gold, with silver as a by-product.
KDC Operation
The KDC mine is located in the Gauteng Province of South Africa in the Far West Rand mining district, some 60 kilometers southwest of Johannesburg. KDC consists of the Driefontein and Kloof mines. As of January 10, 2013, KDC is consisted of 13 producing shaft systems that mine different contributions from pillars and open ground and five gold plants of which two process mainly underground ore and three process mainly surface material. Driefontein is situated some 70 kilometers west of Johannesburg. Kloof is situated in the Magisterial District of Westonaria, some 60 kilometers west of Johannesburg.
Beatrix Operation
The Beatrix operation is located in the Free State Province of South Africa, some 240 kilometers southwest of Johannesburg, near Welkom and Virginia, and consists of the Beatrix mine. Beatrix operates under mining rights covering a total area of approximately 16 800 hectares. As of January 10, 2013, Beatrix had four shaft systems, with five ventilation shafts to provide additional up-cast and down-cast ventilation capacity and is serviced by two metallurgical plants. It is a shallow to intermediate-depth mining operation, at depths between 700 meters and 2 200 meters below surface. The mine has a refrigeration and cooling infrastructure in both its North and West Sections. Beatrix is man! aged as three operational sections: the North Section (consists of Shaft No. 3), the South Section (consists of Shaft No. 2 and Shaft No. 1) and the West Section (consists of Shaft No. 4).
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Lisa Levin]
Gold: This industry jumped 1.20% by 11:40 am. The top performer in this industry was Sibanye Gold (NYSE: SBGL), which rose 3.2%. Gold futures gained 0.44% to trade at $1,281.00 an ounce.
Hot Gold Companies For 2014: Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.(TC)
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in mining, milling, processing, and marketing molybdenum products in the United States and Canada. The company?s principal properties include the Thompson Creek Mine and mill in Idaho; a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania; and a joint venture interest in the Endako Mine, mill, and roasting facility in British Columbia. It also holds interests in development projects comprising the Davidson molybdenum property and the Berg copper-molybdenum-silver property located in northern British Columbia; the Howard?s Pass property, a lead and zinc project situated in the Yukon territory-northwest territories border; and the Maze Lake property, a gold project located in the Kivalliq district of Nunavut. The company produces molybdenum products, primarily molybdic oxide and ferromolybdenum, as well as soluble technical oxide, pure molybdenum tri-oxide, and high purity molybdenum disulfide. As o f December 31, 2010, its consolidated recoverable proven and probable ore reserves totaled 462.2 million pounds of contained molybdenum in the Thompson Creek Mine and the Endako Mine. The company was formerly known as Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. and changed its name to Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. in May 2007. Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. is based in Denver, Colorado.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Garrett Cook]
Monday morning, the basic materials sector proved to be a source of strength for the market. Leading the sector was strength from AK Steel Holding (NYSE: AKS) and Thompson Creek Metals Company (NYSE: TC).
- [By Jake L'Ecuyer]
Leading and Lagging Sectors
Basic Materials shares gained around 0.24 percent in trading on Wednesday. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included Harmony Gold Mining Company (NYSE: HMY), up 4.1 percent, and Thompson Creek Metals Company (NYSE: TC), up 3.8 percent. In trading on Wednesday, cyclical consumer goods & services shares were relative laggards, down on the day by about 0.36 percent. - [By Selena Maranjian]
The biggest new holdings are Chesapeake Energy�puts, and shares of Discovery Communications. Other new holdings of interest include Halcon Resources (NYSE: HK ) , and Thompson Creek Metals (NYSE: TC ) . Oil and gas company Halcon, operating in the promising Bakken region, as well as Texas's productive Eagle Ford shale region, among others, is expected to grow by 30% annually over the coming years. It recently reported 2012 net daily production 128% higher than year-ago levels, and proven reserves up 417%. Halcon was recently one of my colleague Joel South's top two energy holdings, and analysts at Stifel recently upped its rating�from Hold to Buy.
Hot Gold Companies For 2014: Golden Star Resources Ltd(GSS)
Golden Star Resources Ltd., a gold mining and exploration company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of gold properties. It owns and operates the Bogoso/Prestea gold mining and processing operation that covers approximately 40 kilometers of strike along the southwest-trending Ashanti gold district in western Ghana; and the Wassa open-pit gold mine located to the east of Bogoso/Prestea in southwest Ghana. The company also has an 81% interest in the Prestea underground gold mine located in Ghana. In addition, it holds interests in various gold exploration projects in Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Cote d?Ivoire, as well as holds and manages exploration properties in Brazil in South America. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Patricio Kehoe] ating price of the commodity, along with the geopolitical risks involved in mining in African nations such as Ghana, are just two of the obstacles the firm is facing. In addition, as one of the smallest gold mining firms in the industry, with a market cap of just $122 million, Golden Star has had a very difficult time financing its latest expansion projects. With share prices tumbling towards all-time lows, gurus such as Steven Cohen, Chuck Royce and Arnold Schneider have already sold out their positions in the troubled firm.
Why Have Gurus Lost Faith in Golden Star?
Despite aggressive expansion over the past decade, the Toronto-based gold mining firm has not been able to take advantage of its increased production output. Gold prices might have exploded over a ten-year period, yet the recent six-month decline has put a huge strain on Golden Star. The expedited maturation of its mines is particularly troubling, since the accelerated extraction rates, which allowed for short-term profits, are now falling considerably. The impact of the company�� excessive overproduction on profits and growth is clear: decreasing gold reserves mean less production, and thus reduced revenue for the gold miner. When the decline in metal prices are taken into account, the outlook is even more grim.
In addition to overexpansion at the wrong time, Golden Star�� position has weakened due to its comparably less efficient operations. Unlike industry peers, such as IamGold Corp. (IAG) or Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI), the majority of the Toronto-based miner�� assets contain refractory ore, which is far more expensive to extract than non refractory ore. And, in an attempt to switch production to the lower cost gold ore, and thus increase margins, Golden Star has depleted its mines��non refractory ore. With low reserves and mounting cash costs, the firm inevitably turned to new acquisitions.
Overpriced Acquisitions and Geopolitical Risk
The purchase
- [By Rich Duprey]
Clash of the titans
When bears are raging on the gold bullion market, it's not surprising to see gold stocks getting mauled as well. Golden Star Resources (NYSEMKT: GSS ) was the biggest loser in the sector, losing a quarter of its market cap on no company-specific news, though a report last Friday indicated that a large number of hedge funds had recently dumped their positions in the mid-tier miner. Yet it wasn't all that much better among the majors, either, as Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX ) fell almost 13% and Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC ) was down 14%. - [By Sean Williams]
Golden Star Resources (NYSEMKT: GSS )
It's simple physics: The bigger they are, the harder they fall. When gold prices nosedived earlier this week, gold miners with historically higher operating costs took the brunt of the hit. For the most part, that meant that development-stage miners, and those operating in Africa, where labor and political costs make cost-effective mining a challenge, took it on the chin. Possibly no stock was hammered more than Golden Star Resources, a gold miner in Ghana, which lost about one-quarter of its value on Monday alone.
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